I don’t know man, you might be tripping a little bit with this one. If Vance somehow makes it through the primary he’s getting smoked by anyone you put up against him. You could do a full on Vance Walz rematch and even then I still don’t think he would have a chance. He’s got no soul, but regardless I would more or less say the same for anyone deeply connected with the Trump administration really, maybe with the exception of Tulsi or Joe Kent… The vibes are just not there for generating any substantial excitement with more status quo. I think if DeSantis goes on a rizzmaxing protocol he’s way higher up on the list, S even. Nikki Haley is so boring and generic I don’t see her having any chance at winning, especially as the incumbent party. I think you’re missing one dark horse candidate though, who I would personally throw in S+ tier, Thomas Massie. Dude has it all for a republican candidate; rizz, sincerity, actual alignment with traditional conservative principles, Epstein, anti-war, proven ability to work in a bipartisan manner, and the most badass revenge storyline cooking up to come back and triumph over the disastrous Trump admin who pushed him out for standing up against the very things that led to them being a disaster. The primary would be hell, especially without establishment support, but Trump 2016 kinda demonstrated that strong backing from the system isn’t always necessary, especially if the vibes are immaculate enough. If Massie gets up on a debate stage and talks his shit like he has nothing to lose (like he kinda has been) I could see him winning back republicans who are losing faith in the system along with libertarians, independents, etc. Honestly if I were a betting man I would put all my money on green and go as far to say he is the only republican who has a chance of realistically winning 2028. But, as you may be able to tell I just might be a little biased in that opinion 😂
Man, I’m not too sure either. Politics and running a campaign are kind of like what they say about boxing: everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.
I think politics moves in cycles. When you have chaos, eventually people want comfort. When you have excitement and disruption, eventually people start wanting boring again. That’s why I wouldn’t discount somebody like Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis simply because they’re considered boring. Sometimes boring is the rebound. That was basically Biden’s appeal in 2020. He wasn’t exciting. He was supposed to be safe and normal until voters stopped seeing him that way.
Massie is interesting, but I think his problem is that he has a cult following, not necessarily a presidential coalition. And policy chops alone don’t fix that. Tucker has a massive audience, but I don’t think that automatically translates into being able to win a presidential campaign either.
Especially now, debates aren’t really debates anymore. Half the time candidates don’t even participate, and when they do, the whole thing is structured around producing the 20-second TikTok clip and the zinger headline. Context gets murdered. So how does Thomas Massie turn “we have a $40 trillion debt and need to become fiscally responsible” into the clip everybody is talking about the next morning? Maybe he can. But even if he does, does that translate into votes?
That’s the bigger point of my rankings. I’m not ranking who has the best policy or who I personally think would be the best president. I’m looking at what it takes to actually run and win a modern presidential campaign.
There are a few boxes you have to check. First, political power. Can you get enough of the party, its elected officials, activists, donors and infrastructure to consolidate support? If the establishment and the base are both against you, you have an enormous problem.
Second, money. Presidential campaigns burn through an insane amount of it. Massie would have a major hill to climb there. Tulsi is interesting and could raise money, but Vance and Rubio already have national fundraising networks and political infrastructure.
Third is the biggest unknown: What does the Republican Party want after Trump? Does it want another Trump personality? Does it want MAGA without the chaos? Does it want a complete reset? If voters want MAGA policies with a calmer presentation, people like Vance or Rubio have an obvious lane. If the movement completely fractures, somebody we aren’t taking seriously today could suddenly have one.
That’s why I wouldn’t completely count anybody out. Nobody saw Obama coming the way he did in 2008. Nobody saw Trump taking over the Republican Party in 2016. More recently, very few people initially treated Zohran Mamdani like someone who was about to fundamentally disrupt New York politics.
Dark horses happen because campaigns change once people actually start throwing punches.
Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.
I don’t know man, you might be tripping a little bit with this one. If Vance somehow makes it through the primary he’s getting smoked by anyone you put up against him. You could do a full on Vance Walz rematch and even then I still don’t think he would have a chance. He’s got no soul, but regardless I would more or less say the same for anyone deeply connected with the Trump administration really, maybe with the exception of Tulsi or Joe Kent… The vibes are just not there for generating any substantial excitement with more status quo. I think if DeSantis goes on a rizzmaxing protocol he’s way higher up on the list, S even. Nikki Haley is so boring and generic I don’t see her having any chance at winning, especially as the incumbent party. I think you’re missing one dark horse candidate though, who I would personally throw in S+ tier, Thomas Massie. Dude has it all for a republican candidate; rizz, sincerity, actual alignment with traditional conservative principles, Epstein, anti-war, proven ability to work in a bipartisan manner, and the most badass revenge storyline cooking up to come back and triumph over the disastrous Trump admin who pushed him out for standing up against the very things that led to them being a disaster. The primary would be hell, especially without establishment support, but Trump 2016 kinda demonstrated that strong backing from the system isn’t always necessary, especially if the vibes are immaculate enough. If Massie gets up on a debate stage and talks his shit like he has nothing to lose (like he kinda has been) I could see him winning back republicans who are losing faith in the system along with libertarians, independents, etc. Honestly if I were a betting man I would put all my money on green and go as far to say he is the only republican who has a chance of realistically winning 2028. But, as you may be able to tell I just might be a little biased in that opinion 😂
Man, I’m not too sure either. Politics and running a campaign are kind of like what they say about boxing: everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.
I think politics moves in cycles. When you have chaos, eventually people want comfort. When you have excitement and disruption, eventually people start wanting boring again. That’s why I wouldn’t discount somebody like Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis simply because they’re considered boring. Sometimes boring is the rebound. That was basically Biden’s appeal in 2020. He wasn’t exciting. He was supposed to be safe and normal until voters stopped seeing him that way.
Massie is interesting, but I think his problem is that he has a cult following, not necessarily a presidential coalition. And policy chops alone don’t fix that. Tucker has a massive audience, but I don’t think that automatically translates into being able to win a presidential campaign either.
Especially now, debates aren’t really debates anymore. Half the time candidates don’t even participate, and when they do, the whole thing is structured around producing the 20-second TikTok clip and the zinger headline. Context gets murdered. So how does Thomas Massie turn “we have a $40 trillion debt and need to become fiscally responsible” into the clip everybody is talking about the next morning? Maybe he can. But even if he does, does that translate into votes?
That’s the bigger point of my rankings. I’m not ranking who has the best policy or who I personally think would be the best president. I’m looking at what it takes to actually run and win a modern presidential campaign.
There are a few boxes you have to check. First, political power. Can you get enough of the party, its elected officials, activists, donors and infrastructure to consolidate support? If the establishment and the base are both against you, you have an enormous problem.
Second, money. Presidential campaigns burn through an insane amount of it. Massie would have a major hill to climb there. Tulsi is interesting and could raise money, but Vance and Rubio already have national fundraising networks and political infrastructure.
Third is the biggest unknown: What does the Republican Party want after Trump? Does it want another Trump personality? Does it want MAGA without the chaos? Does it want a complete reset? If voters want MAGA policies with a calmer presentation, people like Vance or Rubio have an obvious lane. If the movement completely fractures, somebody we aren’t taking seriously today could suddenly have one.
That’s why I wouldn’t completely count anybody out. Nobody saw Obama coming the way he did in 2008. Nobody saw Trump taking over the Republican Party in 2016. More recently, very few people initially treated Zohran Mamdani like someone who was about to fundamentally disrupt New York politics.
Dark horses happen because campaigns change once people actually start throwing punches.
Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.