It is already that time.
The midterm elections are not even here yet. We have no idea who will control the House or Senate. But apparently, it is time to start speculating about who will run for president in 2028
I want to start with the Republicans.
I am ranking the potential candidates from D tier to S tier, with D being the worst and S sitting above A as the best. I am judging them on four basic questions:
Can they win a Republican primary? Can they defeat the Democratic nominee? Can they build and finance a national campaign? Do they have the charisma and media skills required to run for president?
Those categories are weighted evenly because this is not scientific. It is speculation, and, well… who the hell knows.
But I am going to do it anyway.
D Tier
Josh Hawley
Josh Hawley has national name recognition. He is a sitting senator, reasonably telegenic and capable of raising money.
But I do not think he has the political power or charisma to break through a serious Republican presidential primary.
Hawley is still the guy who raised his fist toward protesters outside the Capitol on January 6 and was later shown running through the Capitol as the attack unfolded. Fairly or unfairly, that image made him look like a little bitch to a lot of people.
He may believe being an incumbent senator gives him enough clout to run. Incumbents normally win reelection, and senators naturally begin imagining themselves as presidents.
I do not see it.
More likely, Hawley positions himself for a future cabinet appointment or uses a presidential campaign to increase his influence within the party.
That puts him in D tier.
Tim Scott
Tim Scott has more political connections than people give him credit for. He can raise money, and he knows how to move around a debate stage without completely embarrassing himself.
I simply do not think he projects the political backbone people expect from a presidential candidate. He does not come across as somebody who will take control of the party, define the race and make voters believe he should be president.
He has connections. He has donors. He has experience.
I do not think he has the gumption.
D tier.
Vivek Ramaswamy
Vivek Ramaswamy created plenty of attention during the 2024 Republican primary. That campaign helped him get selected to help lead the original Department of Government Efficiency effort with Elon Musk, although he “left” before the project formally began.
He is now the Republican nominee for governor of Ohio.
Vivek has money, national recognition and media skills. But I think the more people get to know him, the less they like him. He was passed over for the U.S. Senate appointment, passed over for vice president and never received a Senate-confirmed cabinet position. No one wants him anywhere.
Now he is running for governor.
If he wins and immediately turns around to run for president, people are going to ask why he wanted the governor’s office in the first place. Ohioans would have every right to tell him to stay here and do the damn job.
If he loses the governor’s race, that creates a different problem for a presidential campaign.
Either way, I have him in D tier.
Pete Hegseth
Pete Hegseth is currently the secretary of defense, and his recent political travel to Iowa has already generated speculation about a possible 2028 campaign.
I do not know where Hegseth’s political future goes.
I could see him trying to stay in Republican politics, campaigning for other candidates or positioning himself for another administration job. I could even see his name being floated as a running mate.
But as a presidential candidate, I do not see a strong fundraising organization, broad coalition or convincing general-election profile.
People are talking about him, so he belongs on the list.
He also belongs in D tier.
C Tier
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Sarah Huckabee Sanders is a loyal Trump ally, the governor of Arkansas and a known national figure because of her time as White House press secretary.
I considered putting her in B tier.
She could raise a respectable amount of money. She has political connections, and I think some moderate Republicans could convince themselves that she offers a calmer version of Trump’s politics.
She has also clearly been working on her presentation and political profile as governor.
But I still do not think she generates enough excitement or has enough charisma to take control of a national primary.
My reaction is basically: meh.
That puts her in C tier.
Greg Abbott
Greg Abbott is a powerful Republican governor with national name recognition and deep connections inside the party.
But I do not think he has the charisma to win a presidential campaign.
American presidential politics is also obviously ableist. Voters and the media tend to favor candidates who are taller, conventionally attractive and physically commanding on television. Abbott’s use of a wheelchair should not affect his qualifications, but I think the political system would unfairly make it part of the campaign.
Even beyond that, I do not think he has the presence to take over a crowded Republican field.
C tier.
Tulsi Gabbard
Tulsi Gabbard is an odd political figure.
She was a Democratic member of Congress and a Democratic presidential candidate. She became a Republican, joined Trump’s administration as director of national intelligence and resigned in 2026, publicly citing her husband’s serious health problems.
I still wonder whether leaving the administration also preserves her ability to begin preparing for 2028.
Tulsi has charisma. She has a strong media presence. She can raise money, and she would probably perform well on a debate stage.
Her problem is trust.
Many Republicans still do not trust her because she spent years as a prominent Democrat. Democrats do not trust her because she joined Trump and became a Republican.
That leaves her in a strange political limbo.
I could imagine her fitting into some kind of Tucker Carlson or Marjorie Taylor Greene political movement. I could even imagine a third-party campaign designed to disrupt the general election.
As the Republican nominee, though, I do not see it.
C tier.
Byron Donalds
Byron Donalds just won the Republican nomination for governor of Florida. He will face former Republican congressman and now Democrat David Jolly in the November general election.
Donalds is generally liked within the Republican Party. Like Gabbard and Ramaswamy, he was previously a Democrat, but he does not carry the same political baggage from that transition.
He can raise money. He is comfortable on television, and I think he would perform well on a presidential debate stage.
His problem is timing.
If Donalds wins the governorship and immediately begins campaigning for president, Florida voters may reasonably ask why he ran for governor. If you win the job, do the job.
Would he really leave the Florida governor’s office for a cabinet appointment? I would not.
He has potential, but 2028 may be too soon.
C tier.
B Tier
Ron DeSantis
Ron DeSantis still has political power, donor connections and the ability to build a serious national campaign.
But his 2024 presidential campaign showed all of his weaknesses.
He did not look confident. His messaging never came together. His attempts to compete with Trump felt forced. The more voters saw him campaign, the less they seemed to like him.
The lifts in his shoes, the awkwardness and the constant effort to manufacture a personality gave people the ick.
Republican voters saw that campaign. They are not going to forget it simply because four years have passed.
DeSantis could raise money and build an organization, which keeps him out of the lower tiers. And maybe he learned a lot from the first race. So… second times a charm?
I do not think he wins the primary or the general election.
B tier.
Spencer Pratt
Spencer Pratt jumped into the political conversation when he ran for mayor of Los Angeles in 2026.
He did not advance to the general election, but he came much closer than most people expected. Pratt finished third with 25.8 percent of the vote, behind Karen Bass and Nithya Raman.
Pratt is an interesting character. I do not think he has any real political clout nationwide, and I do not know if he could build the kind of traditional organization normally required to run for president.
But Spencer Pratt is completely online.
He understands social media, short-form videos, viral moments and how to keep people watching. During his mayoral campaign, just five of his posts on X reportedly generated more than 46 million views. His TikTok account had approximately 2.5 million followers, and his campaign raised a significant amount of money in a relatively short period.
That does not mean internet attention automatically turns into votes. His mayoral campaign proved that when he fell from second place in the early count to third as more ballots were counted.
But it also proved that an online personality can enter a serious political race, raise money, mobilize supporters and compete against experienced elected officials.
I could see Pratt going much farther in a Republican presidential primary than political professionals would expect. He might end up standing on a debate stage next to governors, senators and cabinet officials, probably wondering how the hell he got there.
The rest of us would know exactly how he got there.
Social media.
I do not think he could win the nomination or build a complete national campaign. But I think he could raise money, generate attention and survive longer than candidates with far more conventional political experience.
That puts Spencer Pratt in B tier.
Brian Kemp
Brian Kemp is my sleeper candidate.
He is well known inside Republican politics without being completely defined in the minds of national voters. He has built a powerful political organization in Georgia, can raise serious money and has enough charisma to handle a national campaign.
Kemp is the type of candidate people could overlook while focusing on other national figures.
Then he starts raising money, hires an excellent campaign staff and slowly moves up through the field. Suddenly, he is one of the last candidates standing on the debate stage.
I could see Kemp doing well enough that another candidate has to negotiate with him, offer him a cabinet position or find some other way to get him out of the race before he splits an important part of the Republican vote.
He could become the black swan of the Republican primary.
B tier, with the potential to move higher.
Glenn Youngkin
Glenn Youngkin is almost the opposite of Kemp.
Youngkin could enter the race with a large amount of money, strong institutional support and immediate media attention. He could quickly look like one of the front-runners.
But I think the more voters saw him, the less interesting he would become.
Could he win the primary? Maybe.
Could he win the general election? I am not convinced.
I see Youngkin beginning the race around the A or B-tier level and then gradually falling into obscurity as voters become more familiar with him. Meanwhile, a candidate such as Kemp could move in the opposite direction.
B tier.
The Trump Family
I am grouping Ivanka Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Jared Kushner and anybody else from that immediate political circle together.
The Trump name would create an automatic advantage.
They would have access to donors, campaign infrastructure, media attention and the remaining power of the Trump political brand. With Donald Trump’s endorsement, one of them could probably dominate a large portion of the Republican primary.
The primary would be theirs to lose.
The general election would be another story.
The Republican establishment outside the immediate MAGA circle would understand that Donald Trump’s family members are not Donald Trump. They cannot recreate his political instincts, charisma or connection with his voters simply because they share his name or worked in his administration.
You cannot reproduce Donald Trump’s lightning in a bottle through nepotism.
Still, a Trump family candidate would command so much attention and money that the possibility cannot be dismissed.
B tier.
Palmer Luckey
Palmer Luckey is one of my most interesting names on this list.
Luckey founded Oculus VR and helped push modern virtual reality into the mainstream before selling the company to Facebook. He later founded Anduril, which has become a major defense-technology company focused on autonomous systems, drones and military hardware.
Luckey was born in September 1992, so he would be 35 by Election Day in 2028.
He is connected to wealthy donors, technology executives, defense interests and important Republican political figures. He could raise an enormous amount of money.
He also has the kind of personality and ideas that could help Republicans build a political identity beyond Trump. He is smart, eccentric, media-friendly and genuinely different from the normal politicians running for president.
I think he could create a cult following.
I do not think he could win the primary or general election.
He would still be only 35. His clothing, personality, statements and political beliefs would make him extremely polarizing. He could create excitement, but I do not think enough voters would see him as president.
B tier.
A Tier
Nikki Haley
Nimarata “Nikki” Randhawa Haley ran a strong primary campaign against Donald Trump in 2024, which is not an easy thing to do. She ultimately lost, but she proved she could raise money, build a national campaign, and remain on the stage after almost everyone else had dropped out.
Haley can also present herself as a more common-sense Republican capable of reaching moderates who are not part of the MAGA camp. Could she defeat JD Vance or Marco Rubio in a Republican primary? I am not sure. These divisive primaries tend to bring out the most committed voters on the right and left, making it difficult for anyone trying to move toward the middle.
Still, I think Haley would be one of the last candidates standing. She is experienced, capable, and already battle-tested. If she survived the primary, she could be every bit as competitive in a general election as Rubio or Vance.
Nikki Haley gets A tier.
J.D. Vance
Vice President J.D. Vance.
Could Vance win the Republican primary? Absolutely.
He would begin with the power of the vice presidency, the support of much of the Trump movement and his own national profile.
Could he raise enough money? My goodness, yes.
Vance rose from the Senate to the vice presidency with support from Peter Thiel, the Pay Pal Mafia, and a powerful network of Silicon Valley donors. That fundraising system is already operating.
In June, Vance raised $4.2 million for the Republican Party at a Silicon Valley event hosted by Chamath Palihapitiya. In August, another event brought in more than $5 million, with contributions reaching $100,000 for the reception and $250,000 for the dinner.
He is building the donor network for a presidential campaign whether he officially calls it that or not.
Could he win the general election? Yes.
Vance is smart enough and disciplined enough to run a serious campaign. But he still carries the stench of Trump, Peter Thiel and the PayPal Mafia.
He has improved in front of cameras, but he can still seem awkward and overly rehearsed. Put him onstage against somebody with substantial charisma, such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Mark Cuban or Gavin Newsom, and I think Vance could look boring.
Not stupid. Not unqualified.
Boring, intelligent and slightly awkward.
That keeps him out of S tier.
S Tier
Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio is currently the strongest potential Republican candidate for 2028.
Rubio is secretary of state and national security adviser. He has worked closely with Trump and remains connected to the administration, but he does not carry the same Trump stench as Vance or members of Trump’s family.
If an administration policy becomes unpopular, Rubio can argue that he was executing the president’s agenda and navigating the responsibilities of his office. He has enough connection to Trump to appeal to MAGA voters but enough distance to present himself as something new.
Rubio can raise money. He has a national donor network, experienced political allies and decades of campaign experience.
He is also charismatic and would perform well on a debate stage.
His recent interview with his wife Jeanette, where they talked about marriage, family, Tupac and his love of Pop-Tarts, showed something politically useful.
Rubio can appear normal.
He can sit in front of a camera and have a natural conversation without looking as though every sentence was written by a consultant.
He is a competent and respected statesman. The memes about Rubio taking over every job whenever somebody leaves the Trump administration have reinforced that image.
Most importantly, Rubio could bring together different parts of the Republican coalition.
He has enough loyalty to Trump to keep MAGA voters engaged. He has enough traditional Republican credibility to attract moderate Republicans. He could also appeal to right-leaning independents who might be exhausted by Trump but are not ready to vote for a Democrat.
Rubio could present himself as a new version of the Republican Party without completely rejecting the old one.
That is why Marco Rubio is my S-tier Republican candidate for 2028.
This is all speculation. The midterms have not happened, the field has not formed, and four years is an eternity in politics.
But if Republicans had to choose their strongest candidate today, I think it would be Marco Rubio.
What do you think? Who did I rank too high, who did I rank too low, and who did I leave off?
I don’t know man, you might be tripping a little bit with this one. If Vance somehow makes it through the primary he’s getting smoked by anyone you put up against him. You could do a full on Vance Walz rematch and even then I still don’t think he would have a chance. He’s got no soul, but regardless I would more or less say the same for anyone deeply connected with the Trump administration really, maybe with the exception of Tulsi or Joe Kent… The vibes are just not there for generating any substantial excitement with more status quo. I think if DeSantis goes on a rizzmaxing protocol he’s way higher up on the list, S even. Nikki Haley is so boring and generic I don’t see her having any chance at winning, especially as the incumbent party. I think you’re missing one dark horse candidate though, who I would personally throw in S+ tier, Thomas Massie. Dude has it all for a republican candidate; rizz, sincerity, actual alignment with traditional conservative principles, Epstein, anti-war, proven ability to work in a bipartisan manner, and the most badass revenge storyline cooking up to come back and triumph over the disastrous Trump admin who pushed him out for standing up against the very things that led to them being a disaster. The primary would be hell, especially without establishment support, but Trump 2016 kinda demonstrated that strong backing from the system isn’t always necessary, especially if the vibes are immaculate enough. If Massie gets up on a debate stage and talks his shit like he has nothing to lose (like he kinda has been) I could see him winning back republicans who are losing faith in the system along with libertarians, independents, etc. Honestly if I were a betting man I would put all my money on green and go as far to say he is the only republican who has a chance of realistically winning 2028. But, as you may be able to tell I just might be a little biased in that opinion 😂