It is already that time.
The midterm elections are not even here yet. We have no idea who will control the House or Senate. But apparently, it is time to start speculating about who will run for president in 2028
I want to start with the Republicans.
I am ranking the potential candidates from D tier to S tier, with D being the worst and S sitting above A as the best. I am judging them on four basic questions:
Can they win a Republican primary? Can they defeat the Democratic nominee? Can they build and finance a national campaign? Do they have the charisma and media skills required to run for president?
Those categories are weighted evenly because this is not scientific. It is speculation, and, well… who the hell knows.
But I am going to do it anyway.
D Tier
Josh Hawley
Josh Hawley has national name recognition. He is a sitting senator, reasonably telegenic and capable of raising money.
But I do not think he has the political power or charisma to break through a serious Republican presidential primary.
Hawley is still the guy who raised his fist toward protesters outside the Capitol on January 6 and was later shown running through the Capitol as the attack unfolded. Fairly or unfairly, that image made him look like a little bitch to a lot of people.
He may believe being an incumbent senator gives him enough clout to run. Incumbents normally win reelection, and senators naturally begin imagining themselves as presidents.
I do not see it.
More likely, Hawley positions himself for a future cabinet appointment or uses a presidential campaign to increase his influence within the party.
That puts him in D tier.
Tim Scott
Tim Scott has more political connections than people give him credit for. He can raise money, and he knows how to move around a debate stage without completely embarrassing himself.
I simply do not think he projects the political backbone people expect from a presidential candidate. He does not come across as somebody who will take control of the party, define the race and make voters believe he should be president.
He has connections. He has donors. He has experience.
I do not think he has the gumption.
D tier.
Vivek Ramaswamy
Vivek Ramaswamy created plenty of attention during the 2024 Republican primary. That campaign helped him get selected to help lead the original Department of Government Efficiency effort with Elon Musk, although he “left” before the project formally began.
He is now the Republican nominee for governor of Ohio.
Vivek has money, national recognition and media skills. But I think the more people get to know him, the less they like him. He was passed over for the U.S. Senate appointment, passed over for vice president and never received a Senate-confirmed cabinet position. No one wants him anywhere.
Now he is running for governor.
If he wins and immediately turns around to run for president, people are going to ask why he wanted the governor’s office in the first place. Ohioans would have every right to tell him to stay here and do the damn job.
If he loses the governor’s race, that creates a different problem for a presidential campaign.
Either way, I have him in D tier.
Pete Hegseth
Pete Hegseth is currently the secretary of defense, and his recent political travel to Iowa has already generated speculation about a possible 2028 campaign.
I do not know where Hegseth’s political future goes.
I could see him trying to stay in Republican politics, campaigning for other candidates or positioning himself for another administration job. I could even see his name being floated as a running mate.
But as a presidential candidate, I do not see a strong fundraising organization, broad coalition or convincing general-election profile.
People are talking about him, so he belongs on the list.
He also belongs in D tier.
C Tier
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Sarah Huckabee Sanders is a loyal Trump ally, the governor of Arkansas and a known national figure because of her time as White House press secretary.
I considered putting her in B tier.
She could raise a respectable amount of money. She has political connections, and I think some moderate Republicans could convince themselves that she offers a calmer version of Trump’s politics.
She has also clearly been working on her presentation and political profile as governor.
But I still do not think she generates enough excitement or has enough charisma to take control of a national primary.
My reaction is basically: meh.
That puts her in C tier.
Greg Abbott
Greg Abbott is a powerful Republican governor with national name recognition and deep connections inside the party.
But I do not think he has the charisma to win a presidential campaign.
American presidential politics is also obviously ableist. Voters and the media tend to favor candidates who are taller, conventionally attractive and physically commanding on television. Abbott’s use of a wheelchair should not affect his qualifications, but I think the political system would unfairly make it part of the campaign.
Even beyond that, I do not think he has the presence to take over a crowded Republican field.
C tier.
Tulsi Gabbard
Tulsi Gabbard is an odd political figure.
She was a Democratic member of Congress and a Democratic presidential candidate. She became a Republican, joined Trump’s administration as director of national intelligence and resigned in 2026, publicly citing her husband’s serious health problems.
I still wonder whether leaving the administration also preserves her ability to begin preparing for 2028.
Tulsi has charisma. She has a strong media presence. She can raise money, and she would probably perform well on a debate stage.
Her problem is trust.
Many Republicans still do not trust her because she spent years as a prominent Democrat. Democrats do not trust her because she joined Trump and became a Republican.
That leaves her in a strange political limbo.
I could imagine her fitting into some kind of Tucker Carlson or Marjorie Taylor Greene political movement. I could even imagine a third-party campaign designed to disrupt the general election.
As the Republican nominee, though, I do not see it.
C tier.
Byron Donalds
Byron Donalds just won the Republican nomination for governor of Florida. He will face former Republican congressman and now Democrat David Jolly in the November general election.
Donalds is generally liked within the Republican Party. Like Gabbard and Ramaswamy, he was previously a Democrat, but he does not carry the same political baggage from that transition.
He can raise money. He is comfortable on television, and I think he would perform well on a presidential debate stage.
His problem is timing.
If Donalds wins the governorship and immediately begins campaigning for president, Florida voters may reasonably ask why he ran for governor. If you win the job, do the job.
Would he really leave the Florida governor’s office for a cabinet appointment? I would not.
He has potential, but 2028 may be too soon.
C tier.
