It is time for the Democrats.
We already did the list of people I think could run for president on the Republican side, and I put them into a tier list. Now we are going to do the same thing for the Democrats.
The criteria are the same:
Can they win a primary?
Can they win a general election?
Can they raise the money and build the infrastructure needed for a national campaign?
And do they have the charisma and personality to go out there and actually woo people?
We have not even made it to the 2026 midterms. We do not know who is going to control the House or the Senate. But right after those midterms, people are going to start coming out of the woodwork and saying they are running for president.
So why speculate this early?
Because it is fun!
The Republican field could shrink quickly if Donald Trump immediately endorses JD Vance or somebody else. A lot of Republicans probably would not go against the grain. If Trump holds his endorsement until later in the primaries, though, that field could remain huge.
Democrats do not have a succession plan because they are not the party in power. That means everybody with a little money, a little name recognition, and a little ambition is going to look in the mirror and see a future POTUS.
I could see more than 20 people entering this thing. I have 31 names on my list, so let’s get into it.
The Unicorn Tier
Michelle Obama
She is not running.
Michelle Obama has repeatedly said she does not want to run for president, but everybody always says the same thing: “If Michelle ran…”
If she did run, she would be an S-tier candidate. She would rally the troops, raise a ridiculous amount of money, immediately have national political clout, and go very, very far in the primary.
Personally, I think she would win the primary and the general election. She could be the next president of the United States.
But she is not doing it.
That is why Michelle Obama belongs in the unicorn tier.
D Tier
Kirsten Gillibrand, Xavier Becerra, Tom Steyer, Sheryl Sandberg
All of these people have different problems. Some are accomplished politicians. Some come from the business world. All of them would have to make a serious case for why Democratic voters should care about their candidacies.
Most of them are not particularly well known nationally.
Tom Steyer is the exception. He ran for president in 2020 and then spent an enormous amount of his own money running for governor of California in 2026. He received about 23 percent of the primary vote but failed to advance to the general election.
Does he decide that this is finally his time to be POTUS? Maybe. He certainly has the money. I could also see him deciding that he is done running for office.
If Steyer entered the presidential race using the same economic and affordability messaging he used in California, he could start in D tier and slowly work his way up until he was one of the last people standing on a debate stage.
Everybody else has a massive hill to climb when it comes to fundraising and name recognition.
C Tier
Ritchie Torres, Abigail Spanberger, Jasmine Crockett, Mark Cuban, Amy Klobuchar
These people are better known, but their politics, personal baggage, and position inside the Democratic Party put them at a disadvantage.
Most of them would struggle to raise enough money to remain competitive, with the possible exceptions of Mark Cuban. Cuban is rich.
Cuban has already said that he is not running for president in 2028. He has also suggested that, if he ever did run, he might do it as a Republican because he does not believe he could win a Democratic primary.
Maybe I should have put him on the Republican list. Then again, I do not really think he is running as a Republican, either.
Everyone in this tier has work to do in almost every category.
Jasmine Crockett’s charisma and social media presence could propel her into the later stages of a primary.
Everybody else? Eh.
I think Democratic voters are probably tired of Amy Klobuchar and some of the other familiar names.
B Tier
Chris Murphy, Ro Khanna, Ruben Gallego, Cory Booker, Elissa Slotkin, Rahm Emanuel, and Tim Walz
These are all people with political clout and at least some fundraising ability. Some have more personality than others, but almost everyone in this group could be compelling on a debate stage.
Ro Khanna is one of the B-tier candidates I could see remaining in the race through the later primaries. I could also see Chris Murphy sticking around.
I do not personally like Ro Khanna's Substack as a presidential candidate, and in general, but I can see how he could shape his campaign to win over Democratic primary voters. The problem is that I am not convinced he could win a general election.
That is the dichotomy inside the Democratic Party. What appeals to the progressive base during a primary does not always square with what swing voters and independents want in November.
People like Tim Walz, Elissa Slotkin, and Cory Booker could fall off quickly.
Rahm Emanuel is a Democrat from a different time. He has plenty of name recognition, and he is already making the rounds, but this is not his Democratic Party anymore.
A Tier
Mark Kelly
Mark Kelly is an American hero.
He is the kind of old-school Democrat I remember. He is a retired Navy captain, combat pilot, NASA astronaut, and United States senator. Think John Glenn.
He also has the emotional story of standing beside his wife, former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, after she was shot during a constituent event in 2011.
In my opinion, Kelly was unfairly passed over for Tim Walz as Kamala Harris’s running mate in 2024. He should have been the nominee for vice president.
Looking at this list, Mark Kelly would probably get my early primary vote until somebody convinced me otherwise. I personally long for that kind of old-school Democratic candidate.
However, he does not have much charisma. I do not know if progressive primary voters would choose him.
If Kelly could get through the primary, I think he could win a general election. I am just not convinced he can get through the primary.
The Governors: Wes Moore, Andy Beshear, J.B. Pritzker, and Gretchen Whitmer
I am putting these governors together because, while they all possess different qualities, I see them landing in roughly the same place.
Wes Moore has charisma and could become the surprise candidate. I think he would initially raise a modest amount of money, but he has the ability to build something bigger if voters respond to him.
Andy Beshear could also raise serious money. He has won statewide elections as a Democrat in Kentucky, and that will be a major part of his case to voters.
J.B. Pritzker has the money. We do not have to wonder if he could finance a campaign.
Gretchen Whitmer initially said she would not run in 2028, but she walked that statement back later the same day, saying, “Never say never.”
Big Gretch could be compelling. If she entered, she would shake up the top tier immediately. Even if she did not win, I could see her becoming a serious contender for a cabinet position.
The problem for all these governors is that none of them feels overwhelmingly exciting right now. They have résumés. They have political networks. Some will raise more money than others.
But can any of them take over the race?
Raphael Warnock
Senator and Reverend Raphael Warnock has been fighting and winning difficult elections in Georgia. His fellow Georgia senator, Jon Ossoff, is coming up in the S tier.
Warnock would kill it on the debate stage, be prepared, focused, and sharp. He would raise a hell of a lot of money, but in a field this crowded, Democratic donors will have to decide where they are putting their money.
Will they put it behind Raphael Warnock? I am not sure.
I think his presence and who he is as a person could propel him very far. I do not know if he could win a primary, but I believe he could win a general election.
I can also already see him serving in a future Democratic administration if he does not win the nomination.
S Tier
Jon Ossoff
Jon Ossoff says he has “zero interest” in running for president in 2028.
Fine.
I am still putting him in S tier because, if he changes his mind, he has already shown us what the campaign would look like.
Everybody is talking about Ossoff. He is taking on Trump, making the comments, making the rounds, and showing that he knows how to capture attention on social media and in the news.
He is a disciplined and polished politician. He understands what he looks like, what he sounds like, and where he wants to go.
He would raise a shit ton of money and immediately become formidable.
Can he win a primary? I think so.
Can he win a general election? I also think so.
The real question is whether Ossoff could build a national ground game comparable to the organizations behind some of the other candidates. That remains to be seen.
Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris starts in S tier because she was the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024.
Will she raise money? Yes.
Will she begin the race as one of the best-known candidates? Absolutely. In fact, current early polling generally has her at or near the front of the hypothetical field.
Do I believe she can win another primary and then win the general election? No.
Harris will start in S tier because everybody will talk about her. Then I think she will slowly slip down the list.
She is not good on the debate stage. She is not good at unscripted public appearances. She is not good on social media, and she often comes across as fake.
Has the 107 Days book tour made her more comfortable being herself onstage? Can she finally talk the way she wants to talk? Or will she still sound like a scripted consultant puppet?
I think it may still be the latter.
A lot of people have a bad taste in their mouths and will not want to risk another election on her.
It could be hers to lose right out of the gate. I have no confidence that she can hold it.
Josh Shapiro
Josh Shapiro is slick, and he can do a hell of a Barack Obama impression.
Actually, I think he tries to be Barack Obama. That is not necessarily a bad thing, but can it win a Democratic primary?
Shapiro will rally a lot of support. I think he could compete in a general election against JD Vance, Marco Rubio, or whoever else Republicans nominate.
But can he survive the Democratic primary?
That is where I am not sure.
Shapiro seems like a great vice presidential pick or cabinet member. He will be great on television. He will be good on the debate stage, and he will eat some of the lower-tier candidates for breakfast.
The Democratic primary is a very strange place, though. I am not sure he will be the person who mobilizes more voters than everybody else.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Now is AOC’s time.
She is leading early national primary polls, and she has significant name recognition, popularity within the party, and an enormous fundraising potential. Her campaign raised $9.6 million in the first three months of 2025, largely from small-dollar donors.
I think she could become the front-runner.
She is the candidate who will rally the troops. In my opinion, she could raise more money than anybody else. She will be louder on social media, receive more media attention, and have a ground game that is off the charts.
That ground game is the key.
Moderate Democratic voters and volunteers could be divided among Mark Kelly, Raphael Warnock, Josh Shapiro, and several other candidates. Progressives are much less likely to divide themselves evenly between AOC and Ro Khanna.
Khanna could be propelled by AOC’s momentum, only to drop out later and become somebody discussed for a position in an AOC administration.
I think AOC can win the primary.
I am not sure she can win the general election because she is so polarizing.
That is where her vice presidential choice would become extremely important. She could not make the kind of mistake Kamala Harris made by choosing Tim Walz.
Would AOC choose Jon Ossoff? Mark Kelly? Josh Shapiro?
An AOC-Shapiro ticket could round things out pretty nicely and become compelling.
AOC could make it all the way to the finish line. I think her biggest obstacle would be moderate independent voters in the general election.
Pete Buttigieg
Pete Buttigieg will do what Pete Buttigieg always does.
Everybody likes the way he talks. He is absolutely a smart person. He will be the candidate everybody else copies policy from.
Pete will be sitting at the front of the class taking the test while everybody else looks over his shoulder and copies the answers.
He knows how to deliver a line on a debate stage or during an interview. He says something, and it sticks.
He will raise money. He is connected. He will make a name for himself throughout the race.
I am still not convinced he will ultimately win, but his intelligence, fundraising ability, connections, and communication skills put him in S tier at the beginning.
Gavin Newsom
I am not sure Gavin Newsom belongs in S tier. Maybe I want to move him down to A. Maybe B. He peaked too early.
I put him here because everybody is still talking about him.
Will he raise money? Yes.
Can he win the primary? Maybe.
Can he win the general election? Maybe.
Newsom will have to carry the stigma of California through both the Democratic primary and the general election. He has been trying to recalibrate his image through his podcast and by presenting himself as more moderate on certain issues.
He is playing some kind of rebranding game, but I am not sure Democratic primary voters will care.
Could he be a vice presidential candidate? Sure.
Can he win the entire thing on his own? I do not know.
If he succeeds, I think a lot of people will be more interested in his good looks and cool hair than his policies.
Democrats will attack him over California’s policies, his flip-flopping, his rebranding, and his gaffes.
If he survives the primary, Republicans will beat him over the head with all of it.
They will also bring up the French Laundry dinner during the COVID restrictions, when Newsom attended a gathering with friends despite urging Californians to avoid similar events. It was hypocritical and, honestly, kind of disgusting.
Newsom will start in S tier. It would not surprise me if he failed to make it very far.
That is my list.
Maybe I put too many people in S tier. Maybe I put somebody too low. Hell, we will see how everything shapes up once the midterms are over and people start officially jumping into the race.
What do you think? Who did I rank too high, and who did I rank too low?